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Baccarat Streak Probability: Odds of Losing X Hands In a Row

Baccarat, a prominent casino card comparison game, intrigues both seasoned and novice players with its slight similarity to blackjack but ultimately unique gameplay. 

In this post, we aim to answer a common question about Baccarat: “What is the probability of losing a certain number of Baccarat hands in a row?”

Odds of Losing Baccarat Hands In a Row

The prospect of losing several consecutive hands may seem daunting, but how probable is it? Here, we delve into the mathematical intricacies behind these odds to provide some clarity. 

Before we embark on this exploration, it’s crucial to grasp Baccarat’s fundamentals. In this intriguing card game, you have three betting options: you can bet on the Player hand, the Banker hand, or a Tie. You are wagering on which hand you think will achieve a total closer to nine or if the round will end in a tie. 

The probability of losing a specified number of hands in a row depends on multiple factors: 

  • House Edge: Baccarat boasts a relatively low house edge. The Banker bet typically carries a house edge of around 1.06%, while the Player bet has a slightly higher edge of approximately 1.24%. The Tie bet, however, comes with a considerably higher house edge of about 14.36%.
  • Independent Events: Each hand in Baccarat is an independent event, which implies that the outcome of one hand doesn’t influence the next. While this fact offers no guarantees of winning after a series of losses, it also means that a losing streak is down to chance as well. 

The probability of losing a particular number of hands consecutively can be calculated using a simple formula. The probability of losing one hand equates to the house edge. To ascertain the likelihood of losing a specific number of hands in a row, raise the house edge to the power of that number. For instance, the probability of losing five hands consecutively equals (house edge)⁵. 

To shed further light on these probabilities, let’s examine some sample odds of consecutive losses for the Banker and Player bets:

  • Losing 1 hand: Banker (1.06%) or Player (1.24%)
  • Losing 2 hands in a row: Banker (1.06%)² or Player (1.24%)²
  • Losing 3 hands in a row: Banker (1.06%)³ or Player (1.24%)³
  • And so forth…

As you increase the number of consecutive losses, the likelihood of such a streak diminishes significantly. In other words, shorter losing streaks are more frequent, while longer ones are considerably rarer. 

Baccarat Streak Strategy Explained

Short streaks of two or three consecutive wins or losses are relatively common due to the low house edge and the independent nature of each hand. These streaks can occur on both Player and Banker bets, underscoring the inherent unpredictability of the game. 

Long streaks, however, are far less common. Consecutive wins or losses exceeding five are infrequent, often prompting players to reassess their strategies and question the game’s randomness. It’s essential to remember that Baccarat is fundamentally a game of chance. Consequently, even though long streaks might appear improbable, they can indeed occur. 

There are no strategies that can alter the house edge. A streak is a matter of coincidence, with each round being independent of others. The best way to combat a streak is to set a budget or time limit and stick to it. Walking away from the game is the only certain way to end a losing streak.

Longest Baccarat Winning Streak

Baccarat’s history has seen its fair share of impressive winning streaks. While these streaks are rare, they encapsulate the essence of Baccarat’s unpredictable nature and the thrill it can potentially offer to players. 

One of the most famous winning streaks was by Akio Kashiwagi, a high-rolling Japanese businessman. He went on a run to win 15 million dollars at the Diamond Beach Casino in Darwin, Australia.

Longest Baccarat Losing Streak

Similarly, Baccarat’s annals are replete with tales of astonishing losing streaks. One of the most infamous losing streaks is also attributed to Kashiwagi. Kashiwagi’s streak occurred in the late 1980s, epitomising Baccarat’s unpredictability. During one of his legendary gambling sessions, Kashiwagi lost approximately $10 million in a single Baccarat session. 

This dramatic episode underscores the potential risks inherent in Baccarat and underlines the importance of setting limits and managing one’s bankroll judiciously if playing this or any other casino game at an online casino or brick-and-mortar casino. 

Please gamble responsibly, and remember that it’s a game of chance where nothing is guaranteed.


*All values (Bet Levels, Maximum Wins, etc.) mentioned in relation to this game are subject to change at any time.